Distribution — the series
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The words "on average" are not a number
Quicksort is Θ(n log n) on average. Six hundred runs at n = 512 give a distribution with a mean of 4,945 comparisons, a median of 4,908, and a worst case 32% above the mean. The average is a summary of that picture, it is the least interesting thing in it, and it is almost always the only thing reported.
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What randomising the pivot buys
Quicksort taking the first element as its pivot costs 130,816 comparisons on an already sorted array of 512 — 27 times its cost on random data, and exactly the quadratic behaviour the algorithm exists to avoid. Randomising the pivot costs 5,490 on the same input. Randomisation does not make the bad case impossible; it makes it unchoosable.
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The probe formula nobody checks
The expected number of probes to insert into a hash table under linear probing is ½(1 + 1/(1−α)²). It is quoted constantly, it is correct, and applied to a table of 256 slots at 95% load it overstates the measured cost by nearly half — because it is an asymptotic result and a real table is not asymptotic.
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Expected is not average
Quicksort on 2,048 sorted keys costs 2,096,128 comparisons with a first-element pivot and 25,318 with a random one. A binary search tree on the same keys is 2,047 deep; a treap is 26. A hash table on keys computed against its hash puts all 2,048 in one bucket; one drawn from a family puts at most 10 there. Three problems, one distinction.
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What derandomising costs
Randomised selection finds the median of twenty thousand elements in 3.21 comparisons per element and median-of-medians takes 8.15 — two and a half times as many for the same answer, both linear. The number that decides between them is not either of those. It is that the first varies by 28% from seed to seed and the second by 1.6%.
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The adversary who knows the seed
Every randomised figure on this site is drawn from a stated seed, so that the numbers in the captions are the numbers on the reader's screen. That is also the exact condition under which none of the guarantees those figures demonstrate applies. A published seed is a published function.