Merge — the series
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The state a merge is standing in for
A merge of eight summaries of thirty-two counters is wrong by 536 where one summary of thirty-two is wrong by 769, which reads as merging helping. One summary of two hundred and fifty-six counters — exactly what the eight were holding between them — is wrong by nothing at all.
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The partition the analysis did not mention
Space-Saving and Misra-Gries are the same structure under a stream, related by subtracting one number. Sharded eight ways and merged, one of them is wrong by 313 where the other is wrong by 927 — and swapping how the arrivals were assigned to machines reverses which is which.
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The order nobody fixed
The same eight summaries, combined pairwise in a tree or folded in one at a time, produce tables that differ on forty keys — the largest by 964 arrivals. Nothing in a deployment fixes which shape is used, and both answers are inside the guarantee.
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The floor a histogram already knows
A summary of thirty-two counters settles at a smallest counter of 119, and the number can be computed from the shard's key frequencies before a single counter is allocated. The obvious way to compute it is wrong by a factor of two, and the reason is that the heavy counters carry no error at all.
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The bill a partition only divides
The two predicted damages for any key sum to the same number under every partition — 967 arrivals here, whatever the arrangement. Round-robin hands nearly all of it to Misra-Gries and hashing hands most of it to Space-Saving, and neither of them is paying more than the other in total.
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The histogram that cannot see the order
A prediction accurate to one per cent on three streams is seven times out on the fourth, and the input that fails is the one every capacity plan is built from. A statistic computed from the same input says in advance which case is in hand — and misses one of the two ways it can go wrong.
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What a fold charges per level
Thirty-two counter tables folded in a chain come out wrong by 323 where the same thirty-two combined pairwise are wrong by 148, and the quantile summaries prefer the chain by exactly as much in the other direction. What is being charged in each case is the depth of the fold, and the two families are charged on opposite ones.
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The fold that minimises the wrong thing
A fold charges per level and a survivor pays the cuts on its path, so the bill looks like a weighted external path length — and Huffman's construction minimises that quantity by proof. Built and measured on thirty-two uneven shards it does minimise it, 181,407 against a balanced tree's 200,000, and leaves more damage than the tree does.
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The shape one structure will not fold
Folding thirty-two shards largest-pair-first keeps 2,556 quantile tuples against a balanced tree's 3,211 — a fifth of the space saved. The same fold on the counter tables beside them leaves 403 counts of error against the tree's 148. A deployment holding both cannot fold once and be right twice.
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A parameter that waits for another
Four merge fold shapes over thirty-two evenly loaded shards leave errors of 665, 667, 665 and 667 — a fifth of a per cent apart. Give the same four shapes shards whose loads span seventeen-fold and they leave 148, 183, 323 and 403. The parameter did nothing until a second parameter moved, and every measurement that fixed the second one saw nothing.
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The floor a merge does not settle at
Compute a fold's level floors from the shard histograms and the prediction over-shoots by 1.73. A merged summary's floor is not the floor a summary settles at on the same arrivals — it is 0.90 of it at four shards and 0.70 at sixty-four, straight in log₂ m at a 3% residual, because merging preserves the heavy counters and never runs their eviction cascade.
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The warning that is silent for the right reason
The statistic shipped to warn that a merge prediction is about to fail reads 0.160 on a stationary stream, 0.172 on a bursty one and 0.909 on a drifting one. It was asked to be looked at again because it does not catch a burst. It does not, and the reason is that on a burst there is nothing to catch.