The thread: Expected is not average
Counting past what the register holds
Morris's counter counts ten million events in five bits by incrementing with probability 2 to the minus c. The estimate is exactly unbiased at every n, its relative error is 71%, and the base is a dial that trades one against the other at a rate of the square root of half of a minus one.
What a bound isExpected is not average
Quicksort on 2,048 sorted keys costs 2,096,128 comparisons with a first-element pivot and 25,318 with a random one. A binary search tree on the same keys is 2,047 deep; a treap is 26. A hash table on keys computed against its hash puts all 2,048 in one bucket; one drawn from a family puts at most 10 there. Three problems, one distinction.
When the algorithm flips a coinA hash is a family, not a function
Two thousand and forty-eight keys into two hundred and fifty-six buckets. Under a hash that takes the low bits of the key, all 2,048 land in bucket zero and 255 buckets are empty. Under a multiplier drawn at random, the worst bucket holds 11. The keys are the same keys, and they are the multiples of the table size.
What is taught wronglyThe formula everybody sizes filters with
Fill a Bloom filter with four thousand random keys and its measured false-positive rate is within 4% of the textbook formula. Fill the same filter with the integers 1 to 4,000 and the rate is 30% worse than the formula says — not because the hash is bad, but because it is too good on that input.
What a bound isWhat derandomising costs
Randomised selection finds the median of twenty thousand elements in 3.21 comparisons per element and median-of-medians takes 8.15 — two and a half times as many for the same answer, both linear. The number that decides between them is not either of those. It is that the first varies by 28% from seed to seed and the second by 1.6%.
When the algorithm flips a coinA match decided by a number
Rabin–Karp replaces a comparison of two strings with a comparison of two integers, and pays for it only when the integers agree by accident. On 65,521 windows at a modulus of 1,009 it verified 79 times against a predicted 64.9. On a text of 1,024 characters chosen with the modulus in hand it verified at 64 windows out of 64 possible, each one costing fifteen of the pattern's sixteen characters — and the closed form is silent about that, because it assumes nobody chose the text.
What is taught wronglyThe adversary who knows the seed
Every randomised figure on this site is drawn from a stated seed, so that the numbers in the captions are the numbers on the reader's screen. That is also the exact condition under which none of the guarantees those figures demonstrate applies. A published seed is a published function.
What a bound isThe depth limit that almost never fires
Introsort counts how deep its recursion has gone and calls heapsort if it passes twice the logarithm. On every input measured, the mechanism handles under a tenth of a per cent of the elements. Then an adversary that answers the comparisons rather than choosing the array drives it to exactly n²/2 with the limit removed, and to one heapsort call with it — a factor of forty-two at n = 8,192, and growing.