Estimator — where it appears
Named by 42 essays across 6 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
The answer that is allowed to be wrong
Every algorithm on this site so far was checked for correctness before it was measured. A summary of a stream cannot be — the data goes past once and does not fit — so the error becomes a resource, bought with bits, at an exchange rate that is a measurement.
The state a merge is standing in for
A merge of eight summaries of thirty-two counters is wrong by 536 where one summary of thirty-two is wrong by 769, which reads as merging helping. One summary of two hundred and fifty-six counters — exactly what the eight were holding between them — is wrong by nothing at all.
Counting past what the register holds
Morris's counter counts ten million events in five bits by incrementing with probability 2 to the minus c. The estimate is exactly unbiased at every n, its relative error is 71%, and the base is a dial that trades one against the other at a rate of the square root of half of a minus one.
A count that is never under
The Count-Min sketch holds four rows of counters and answers how often a key occurred. Its error is one-sided with no probability attached — the estimate is never below the truth on any stream — and the probabilistic half of its guarantee is only about how far above.
A count read off the leading zeros
Hash every key and watch for the longest run of leading zeros. Seeing k of them is evidence of about two to the k distinct keys — an estimator with a variance so large it is worthless, and the two devices that fix it are the whole of what a cardinality sketch is.
The promise that does not survive the tree
A high-biased quantile summary at ε = 1% answers the 99th percentile of twenty thousand values to within two ranks. Merge thirty-two of them and the answer is seventeen ranks out — inside the merged bound, eight times outside the one anybody was quoted.
The correction that makes it work
HyperLogLog and LogLog read the same registers and differ only in how they average them. The harmonic mean is worth 30% of the error for nothing, and below two and a half registers' worth of keys the estimator both are built on is 137% high and has to be abandoned.
The error of a difference
Three sketches, each within a per cent or two of its own answer, subtracted into an intersection. At a Jaccard index of 0.82 the answer is 1.3% out. At 0.005 it is 146% out — the same three sketches, the same accuracy, a different question. The error never grew: it stayed a fixed fraction of the union, and the union stopped being the thing being asked about.
The estimate that squares the stream
The length of a stream is a counter and the number of distinct keys is a register bank. The sum of the squared frequencies has nothing obvious to count — and one number, one sign per key, and a squaring get within 4% of it in a fortieth of the space.
The error that is on the rank
A summary of 77 tuples answers eight quantiles of a stream of 20,000 values, and every answer is guaranteed to sit within 0.9% of the stream from where it was asked for. The guarantee is deterministic, it holds on every distribution, and it is not about the numbers it returns.
The estimate that is a median of means
An estimator with a 70% spread is not usable and an estimator with a stated failure probability is. The construction that turns the first into the second is two lines long, it is where every delta in this field comes from, and its exponential is measured here by counting failures rather than by evaluating a bound.
The matrix a corpus wrote
A substitution matrix is not a property of an alphabet. Fit one to four hundred pairs of sequences that rarely change and the dearest substitution costs five; fit the same model to four hundred pairs that often change and it costs two. Two hundred test pairs aligned under each matrix give different alignments in 115 cases — and a matrix fitted to eight pairs of the first kind moves 79 of them, from sampling alone.
The counter with no window in it
A counter that fades by half every H settles, on a steady stream, at exactly the count of a window of 1.44H. That correspondence holds in the mean, on a steady stream, and nowhere else — and it is the reason a decayed counter is not an estimate of a windowed count for any window.
The independence an estimator spends
Every sketch's analysis begins by assuming a truly random hash, and nobody comes back to that line. Independence has a degree, the degree is enumerable over a small field, and an estimator's mean and its variance spend different amounts of it.
The guarantee that is one query wide
A sketch described as accurate to within a per cent is accurate to within a per cent of the whole stream, not of the number asked about. On a skewed stream the same sketch is 4% wrong about its heaviest key and 34,100% wrong about one of its rarest, and both figures satisfy the bound.
The estimate a plan rests on
A planner chooses between an index and a scan on how many rows it thinks will match, and the number it has is wrong by a factor. Guess sixty-four times too many on a narrow query and the scan it picks costs 13.5 times the index. Guess sixty-four times too few on a wide one and the index costs at most 4.01 times the scan — a ceiling that can be named before any query runs.
The intersection two filters cannot report
Two Bloom filters over sets that share five hundred keys, ANDed bit by bit. The result never denies a shared key, and it looks like a filter of the intersection. It is not one — a key in only one of the sets passes it 1.8% of the time where a real filter of the intersection passes none, and reading the intersection's size off its bits gives 900.
The items that survive k counters
Misra-Gries keeps k counters, decrements all of them on a miss, and never returns a count above the truth — with no hashing, no randomness and no failure probability. At equal state it is more accurate than the randomised sketch on the question both are usually asked, at every size measured.
The summaries that add
Two sketches built over two streams and merged are, for three of the four structures here, byte for byte the summary the concatenated stream would have produced. For the fourth the guarantee survives and the state does not, and calling both properties mergeability hides the difference that matters.
The join order is a guess
Three tables, two orders, and an estimate of the first intermediate result that assumes the join column is uniform. When the column is skewed the estimate is out by seventy-two times, and the plan chosen on it costs 1.49 times the better one — which sounds tolerable until the shared output is taken away, and the part of the cost the order actually decided turns out to be 43.9 times worse.
A promise about the rank is not a promise about the value
A quantile summary asked for the 99th percentile of a log-normal stream returns the largest value it ever saw — 2,169 against a true 318, six times too high — and its rank error is 1.00% against a promised 2%. The guarantee held. It was never about the number.
The floor a histogram already knows
A summary of thirty-two counters settles at a smallest counter of 119, and the number can be computed from the shard's key frequencies before a single counter is allocated. The obvious way to compute it is wrong by a factor of two, and the reason is that the heavy counters carry no error at all.
The skew a few counters cannot repair
A join order chosen on the textbook estimate costs 243.9 times the better order at a Zipf exponent of two, and two counters a side are enough to fix it. At an exponent of one half the estimate is out by less than a factor of two, the plan it picks costs 1.37 times the better one, and no number of counters up to 256 changes that. The easy case is the extreme one, and the reason the moderate one is hard is a series that stops converging at exactly one half.
The ties a rounded matrix makes
Measure how far each optimal alignment is from a tie — the smallest change to any one cost that makes another alignment win — and it predicts which alignments a refitted substitution matrix will move. A resample of the same corpus moves 30 of the 63 test alignments that sit on a tie and 3 of the other 137. A matrix fitted to a different divergence moves alignments far from a tie as well, and the prediction weakens to a chance of 0.62. And a third of the alignments were on a tie only because the matrix was rounded to whole bits — fitted without rounding, 15 of 200 are, and every prediction improves.
A sketch that is allowed to be under
Count-Min's estimate is never below the truth, and it pays for that with an error proportional to the whole stream. Give every key a sign and take a median instead, and the same table is 2.7 times more accurate on the keys anybody asks about — and wrong in both directions.
What insurance against an estimate costs
A planner that trusts its row estimate expects to pay 1.057 times the better plan and risks 7.76. One that insures itself by halving its estimate before it decides expects 1.057 and risks 4.10 — the insurance is free. At a read ratio of sixteen the same insurance costs six per cent in expectation and makes the worst case worse. Whether a conservative planner is paying a sensible premium depends on two numbers the planner can measure and usually does not — its device's read ratio and the direction its own errors run.
The lattice that decides the ties
Rounding a fitted substitution matrix to whole bits puts 63 of 200 alignments on a tie where the exact fit puts 15. Rounding to half bits — a finer grain, and the obvious repair — puts 79. What tracks the ties is not how fine the lattice is but how many of the six fitted costs it keeps apart: whole and half bits both leave three, an eighth of a bit leaves all six, and matches the exact fit exactly.
The grain a corpus chooses for itself
A fitted substitution matrix can choose its own rounding lattice: the coarsest grain that keeps all six of its costs apart. On eight resamples of the same 400-pair corpus that grain comes out anywhere from an eighth of a bit to a forty-seventh, because it is set by whichever two costs happen to land closest, and those two differ by less than a tenth of their own standard error. Asked instead which costs it can actually tell apart, the corpus pools six into the generator's two and chooses an alignment the generator agrees with for every one of 200 test pairs on every resample.
The classes held-out pairs cannot rule out
A substitution matrix can choose how many distinct costs it has as part of the fit: try all 203 ways of grouping its six pairs into classes and keep the one that best predicts pairs it was not fitted to. On corpora from a generator with two costs, that choice finds the two on about a third of resamples, and no more often at 3,200 pairs than at 50. A spurious split gains the same bit or two of fit at every size, and held-out scoring charges it a fixed price. A penalty that grows with the corpus finds the two every time, and finds a third class half a bit away from 400 pairs.
The bill a partition only divides
The two predicted damages for any key sum to the same number under every partition — 967 arrivals here, whatever the arrangement. Round-robin hands nearly all of it to Misra-Gries and hashing hands most of it to Space-Saving, and neither of them is paying more than the other in total.
A decay measured from where it started
An exponentially decayed counter is one number because its weights fade by elapsed time alone. Forward decay keeps a polynomial weight in one number too, by measuring each arrival from a fixed landmark. Its memory is then a share of the time since that landmark: at β = 2 an arrival counts half at 29% of that time. Anchored at the start of a stream, it takes 5.3 seconds to register a fourfold rise twenty seconds in and 83 seconds when the rise comes at five minutes.
The histogram that cannot see the order
A prediction accurate to one per cent on three streams is seven times out on the fourth, and the input that fails is the one every capacity plan is built from. A statistic computed from the same input says in advance which case is in hand — and misses one of the two ways it can go wrong.
What a heavier tail actually buys
Four decays, each tuned until it is equally quiet on a stream with nothing happening, then given one burst. At a burst of three hundred they see it for 54, 63, 68 and 104 seconds — indistinguishable. At nine thousand the exact polynomial reaches 384 seconds and the exponential 156. The shape of a tail does not decide how far back a scheme can see. It decides how fast that distance grows with the size of the event, and the exchange rate is the reciprocal of the exponent.
A cost built from two properties
A substitution matrix fitted as a partition gives each class of pairs one cost, and the best number of classes can be chosen from the data. When the true costs are a sum of two terms — a transversion penalty and a graded difference between the letters — every pair costs something different, and the chosen partition's number of classes becomes a statement about the corpus: two classes at 25 sequence pairs, four at 200, five at 1,600. A model with the two terms and three parameters predicts a fresh corpus better than any partition at every size, and gets 191 of 200 alignments right from 50 pairs where the chosen partition needs 3,200. Told the wrong property it is worse than the plain two-class matrix, and nothing in its own fit says so.
A detector that learns its own quiet
A burst detector built from a fast decayed counter needs a threshold, and the one it was measured with came from sixty independent runs of the background — an oracle no deployed system has. Two counters and a running mean square of their difference can supply it from the stream itself, and on a stream that does not move they hit a 5% false-alarm rate at every setting tried. What they lose is the burst: a scale that learns every reading learns the burst as noise and forgets it in 20 to 40 seconds whatever its size. Holding the scale while alarmed brings the oracle's horizon back for small bursts, turns a slow drift into an alarm that will not stop, and still cannot see past the lag at which the slow counter holds more of the burst than the fast one.
The clock a burst cannot outlast
A burst detector that holds its scale while alarmed keeps a burst visible to a ceiling set by two half-lives, and cannot stop alarming on a slow drift. The repair proposed for it was a schedule: learn again once an excursion has outlasted anything a burst could produce. Timed by how long the alarm has lasted, the schedule changes almost nothing, because on a gentle rise the alarm breaks every few seconds and the clock never reaches the ceiling. Timed by how long the difference between the counters has stayed positive, it keeps every burst to within about a second of the ceiling and falls below the target false-alarm rate on steep drifts — and one quantity, the drift's offset measured in spreads of the difference, says where it still fails.
A line the corpus finds
Substitution costs built as a transversion penalty plus the distance between the two letters' values on a graded property beat every partition of the pairs, when the model is told the property, and fall below the plainest matrix when told the wrong one. Fitting each letter's position on a line instead was predicted to find the property's order from about four times the told model's data and then behave like it. It finds the order on every corpus of 100 sequence pairs or more but one, and every miss starts with the two letters whose values differ by a fifth of a bit. But knowing the order is not knowing the costs. Its alignments are no better than six free classes' until 800 pairs, sixteen times the data the told model needed for the same score, and on a generator with no graded property at all it finds a line anyway, a quarter as long as a real one at 200 pairs, and pays for it against the plain partition.
A line with a prior toward the classes
Substitution costs fitted as the letters' positions on a free line learn the letters' order quickly, and on a generator with no graded property they invent a line anyway. Charging the line for its length, at a rate growing with the corpus as the partitions' charge does, was predicted to collapse the invented line from 50 pairs and to cost the real one little. It does neither. On the generator with no property the charged line still has a median length of 0.12 bits at 3,200 pairs. On the generator with a property it takes the letters' order away at every size up to 400 pairs where the free line had it on sixteen seeds of sixteen. Charging the line for the number of gaps it keeps, the partitions' own rule, collapses the invented line on every seed at every size and matches the chosen partition to the bit — and then needs 1,600 pairs before it believes a real line is there.
The warning that is silent for the right reason
The statistic shipped to warn that a merge prediction is about to fail reads 0.160 on a stationary stream, 0.172 on a bursty one and 0.909 on a drifting one. It was asked to be looked at again because it does not catch a burst. It does not, and the reason is that on a burst there is nothing to catch.
The slope the slow counter already shows
A burst detector built from a fast and a slow decayed counter reads a steady rise in its background as an offset in their difference, β(R − 1)H/ln 2, and alarms on it. Every repair so far waited the offset out. This one subtracts it: the slow counter's own change over one slow half-life is a reading of the slope, and the offset follows from it. At R = 16 the corrected detector alarms on 5.5% to 7.8% of readings on rises that make the held scale alarm on 11% to 63%, and it costs a burst at most 3.7 seconds of detection. The estimate has to be quick: four times slower, it has recovered only 71% of the offset when alarms start to count.
The rise the correction kept subtracting
A burst detector that subtracts a rising background's offset, read off its own slow counter, goes on subtracting it after the rise has stopped. The prediction was a deficit for about one slow half-life that would cost bursts of 300 arrivals. Measured, the deficit is deeper and longer: down to 1.46 spreads below zero, below half a spread for seventeen minutes after a 40% rise. Bursts of 300 are never missed. What the deficit costs is small bursts — 30 arrivals caught 27% of the time where the rise saw 77% — and a fifth of a large burst's visible time.
A check as slow as what it checks
A burst detector that subtracts a rising background's offset goes on subtracting it after the rise ends, and loses small bursts in the trough that opens. Capping the subtraction by what the difference itself shows, averaged over one slow half-life, was predicted to close the trough to under half a spread. It lifts it from 1.46 spreads to 1.24, because that average is as late as the estimate it checks. Averaged over a quarter of the time it lifts it to 0.70 and catches small bursts in the trough more often than any other design but the one that alarms on a fifth of its readings. Neither cap helps after a large burst, which every slope correction reads as a rise.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
State bitsHonest limitSketchRelative errorGuaranteeHeavy hitterStreaming modelVarianceZipf distributionCost modelFittingExponential decay