Concept

Expected value — where it appears

The average of a random quantity weighted by the probability of each outcome. It is a property of a distribution rather than of any run, so a mean of sampled runs only estimates it, with an error that shrinks as the square root of the number of runs.

Named by 3 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

mean 494599th 60304,2825,4136,543comparisonsruns600 independent random inputs, n = 512worst run 1.32× the mean

The words "on average" are not a number

Quicksort is Θ(n log n) on average. Six hundred runs at n = 512 give a distribution with a mean of 4,945 comparisons, a median of 4,908, and a worst case 32% above the mean. The average is a summary of that picture, it is the least interesting thing in it, and it is almost always the only thing reported.

wrong · Distribution
0.0000.0100.0200.030150200comparisonsprobability per comparison countmean 139.86exact400 runsn = 32, pivot chosen uniformlysampled mean 140.19

A distribution computed rather than sampled

Quicksort with a random pivot makes a random number of comparisons, and every plate on this site reports one draw from that distribution. The distribution itself can be computed exactly — every pivot, every split, weighed — and on sixty-four elements its mean is 360.706 and its standard deviation 36.741. A hundred real runs average 365.98; two thousand average 360.74. The exact answer says how many runs a sample needs, and it is fewer as the input grows.

counting · Count
12481632641282561executed queries the fit sawexpected regrettrusting the estimatefitted from the queriesthe best divisor, 1.5ρ = 4, σ = 1.5, 120 fits a pointlower is better

What a planner pays to find out what to pay

Insurance against a row estimate is set from the error's median and spread, and a running system knows neither — it has to fit them from executed queries. Fitted from one query the divisor costs 1.263 times the better plan against 1.215 for a planner that never insures at all, so learning is worse than not learning until about sixteen queries have run. The tail, though, is bought immediately: one observation already holds the worst case to 24.7 against 36.6.

applied · Transfer

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

DistributionSamplingComparison countQuicksortAverage caseBreak-evenCardinality estimationClosed formConcentrationCost modelDesign parameterGuarantee

All concepts