Expected value — where it appears
Named by 5 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
The words "on average" are not a number
Quicksort is Θ(n log n) on average. Six hundred runs at n = 512 give a distribution with a mean of 4,945 comparisons, a median of 4,908, and a worst case 32% above the mean. The average is a summary of that picture, it is the least interesting thing in it, and it is almost always the only thing reported.
A distribution computed rather than sampled
Quicksort with a random pivot makes a random number of comparisons, and every plate in these essays reports one draw from that distribution. The distribution itself can be computed exactly — every pivot, every split, weighed — and on sixty-four elements its mean is 360.706 and its standard deviation 36.741. A hundred real runs average 365.98; two thousand average 360.74. The exact answer says how many runs a sample needs, and it is fewer as the input grows.
What a planner pays to find out what to pay
Insurance against a row estimate is set from the error's median and spread, and a running system knows neither — it has to fit them from executed queries. Fitted from one query the divisor costs 1.263 times the better plan against 1.215 for a planner that never insures at all, so learning is worse than not learning until about sixteen queries have run. The tail, though, is bought immediately: one observation already holds the worst case to 24.7 against 36.6.
The spread a merge sort does not have
On 65,536 random keys quicksort's comparison count has a standard deviation of 42,470 and merge sort's has one of 141.9 — three hundred times smaller, on means only a quarter apart. Merge sort's count is a fixed bill minus 65,535 independent leftovers, one per merge, each worth about a coin toss, so its spread grows as the square root of n where quicksort's grows as n. From 256 keys up a single run of merge sort pins its mean to one per cent, and a third of quicksort's whole spread is decided by its first pivot.
A planner that knows how sure it is
A planner that fits its insurance divisor from a handful of executed queries under-insures, because a spread fitted to a small sample is biased low. The textbook repair is to use the upper end of a confidence interval on the spread instead of its centre. At a read ratio of four it makes the planner worse than trusting its estimate for longer — until sixty-four queries rather than sixteen — and it buys the worst case immediately, from 22.4 times the better plan to 6.2 after two queries. The bound is not a correction towards the truth. It is a dial between two different planners.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
DistributionSamplingComparison countQuicksortVarianceWorst caseBreak-evenCardinality estimationCost modelDesign parameterMeasurement designQuery planner